published in: International Migration Review, 2012, 46 (2), 361-387
While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return
migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using
Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of
migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the
states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification
and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European
immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants.
The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early
after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home
country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once
out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by
remittances and family considerations.
We use cookies to provide you with an optimal website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site as well as cookies that are only used for anonymous statistical purposes, for comfort settings or to display personalized content. You can decide for yourself which categories you want to allow. Please note that based on your settings, you may not be able to use all of the site's functions.
Cookie settings
These necessary cookies are required to activate the core functionality of the website. An opt-out from these technologies is not available.
In order to further improve our offer and our website, we collect anonymous data for statistics and analyses. With the help of these cookies we can, for example, determine the number of visitors and the effect of certain pages on our website and optimize our content.