published in: Empirical Economics, 2020, 59, 1933-1957
In England as elsewhere, policy makers are trying to reduce the pressure on costs due to rising hospital admissions by encouraging GPs to refer fewer patients to hospital specialists. This could have an impact on elective treatment levels, particularly procedures for conditions which are not life-threatening and can be delayed or perhaps withheld entirely. This study attempts to determine whether cost savings in one area of publicly funded health care may lead to cost increases in another and therefore have unintended consequences by offsetting the cost-saving benefits anticipated by policy makers.
Using administrative data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England we estimate dynamic fixed effects panel data models for emergency admissions at Primary Care Trust and Hospital Trust levels for the years 2004–13, controlling for a group of area-specific characteristics and other secondary care variables. We find a negative link between current levels of elective care and future levels of emergency treatment.
This observation comes from a time of growing admissions and there is no guarantee that the link between emergency and elective activity will persist if policy is effective in reducing levels of elective treatment, but our results suggest that the cost-saving benefits to the NHS from reducing elective treatment are reduced by between 5.6 per cent and 15.5 per cent in aggregate as a consequence of increased emergency activity.
We use cookies to provide you with an optimal website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site as well as cookies that are only used for anonymous statistical purposes, for comfort settings or to display personalized content. You can decide for yourself which categories you want to allow. Please note that based on your settings, you may not be able to use all of the site's functions.
Cookie settings
These necessary cookies are required to activate the core functionality of the website. An opt-out from these technologies is not available.
In order to further improve our offer and our website, we collect anonymous data for statistics and analyses. With the help of these cookies we can, for example, determine the number of visitors and the effect of certain pages on our website and optimize our content.