IZA DP No. 17758: Shaken Politics: The Electoral Outcomes of Disasters and Social Capital
Giovanni Gualtieri, Marcella Nicolini, Fabio Sabatini, Marco Ventura
We study the electoral repercussions of the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, one of Italy's most catastrophic post-WWII seismic events. We construct a unique municipality-level dataset, combining high-resolution data on the ground acceleration recorded during the earthquake with European election results and social capital metrics. Our findings indicate that the intensity of the shock positively influenced support for the incumbent national government but provided no electoral advantage to local incumbents. Analyzing potential transmission mechanisms, we find that relief measures did not automatically translate into political rewards. Instead, social capital played a pivotal role in shaping post--disaster electoral outcomes. The national government's electoral gains were concentrated in municipalities with a low density of civic organizations, where citizens relied predominantly on political institutions for assistance. Individual level evidence from survey data further supports our findings. Nonetheless, the impact of the earthquake was not enduring. In the subsequent elections, the incumbent government experienced a decline in support in the very municipalities where it had initially gained favor following the disaster.
We use cookies to provide you with an optimal website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site as well as cookies that are only used for anonymous statistical purposes, for comfort settings or to display personalized content. You can decide for yourself which categories you want to allow. Please note that based on your settings, you may not be able to use all of the site's functions.
Cookie settings
These necessary cookies are required to activate the core functionality of the website. An opt-out from these technologies is not available.
In order to further improve our offer and our website, we collect anonymous data for statistics and analyses. With the help of these cookies we can, for example, determine the number of visitors and the effect of certain pages on our website and optimize our content.