published in: Journal of Public Economics, 2008, 92 (10-11), 1926-1941
This paper analyzes how enforcement along the U.S.-Mexican border has affected the
market for migrant smugglers. Using a unique dataset that links border crossing histories
from illegal Mexican migrants to aggregate enforcement and punishment statistics, we find
that the effect of enforcement on smuggling prices is small. Though enforcement has more
than tripled over the past fifteen years, smuggling prices have increased by at most 30
percent. Unlike estimates from illegal drugs, the demand for border smugglers is however
price elastic. We also show that illegal migrants have switched from heavily patrolled areas to
more remote and dangerous crossing routes. These avoidance costs are in fact three times.
the direct costs of enforcement on smuggling prices
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