published in: Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, 2008, 26 (4), 435–445
This paper discusses the evaluation problem using observational data when the timing of
treatment is an outcome of a stochastic process. We show that the duration framework in
discrete time provides a fertile ground for effect evaluations. We suggest easy-to-use
nonparametric survival function matching estimators. These estimators can be used to
estimate the time profile of the treatment. We apply one of the estimators to evaluate the
effects of an employment subsidies program. The longer run program effects are positive.
The estimated time profile suggests locking-in effects while participating in the program and a
big upward jump in the employment hazard upon program completion.
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