published in: Journal of Law and Economics, 2006, 49 (2), 533-566
The United States has a teenage birth rate that is high relative to that of other developed
countries, and falling more slowly. Children of teenagers may experience difficult childhoods
and hence be more likely to commit crimes subsequently. I assess to what extent lagged
teen birth rates can explain why the United States had the highest developed country crime
rates in the 1980s, and why US rates subsequently fell so much. For this purpose, I use
internationally comparable crime rates measured from the 1989-2000 International Crime
Victims Surveys. I find that an increase in the share of young people born to a teen mother
increases the assault rate. The type of assault affected is perpetrated by unarmed lone
assailants known to the victim by name, particularly at home or at work, and is not reported to
the police. The pattern of teen births in the United States explains –30% of the relative fall in
assaults by assailants known to the victim, but more than explains the 1980s gap with the
rest of the world. I also present evidence on larceny and burglary.
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