revised version published as 'Job Stability Trends, Lay-offs, and Transitions to Unemployment in West Germany' in: Labour, 2011, 25 (4), 421–446
This paper studies the evolution of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the
German Socio-Economic Panel, we first show that the median elapsed tenure declined for
men between 1984 and 1999. Second, estimating proportional Cox hazard models with
competing risks and controls for stock sampling, we are able to distinguish the reasons for
job separation and different transition states. We show that the decline in the stability of
men’s jobs can be attributed partly to an increase in layoffs and partly to an increase in
transitions to unemployment. However, these two developments are not significantly related
to each other. Some evidence is presented that downsizing of large firms might be
responsible for part of the decline in job stability.
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