revised version published as 'Fertility, Taxation and Family Policy' in: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2004, 106 (4), 745-763
Historically, in virtually all developed economies there seems to be clear evidence of an
inverse relationship between female labor supply and fertility. However, particularly in the last
decade or so, the relationship across countries has been positive: for example countries like
Germany, Italy and Spain with the lowest fertility rates also have the lowest female
participation rates. We accept the hypothesis that the reason for this lies in the combined
effects of a country’s tax system and system of child support, and we have sought to clarify
this theoretically, using an extended version of the Galor-Weil model. The results suggest
that countries with individual rather than joint taxation, and which support families through
improved availability of alternatives to domestic child care, rather than through direct child
payments, are likely to have both higher female labor supply and higher fertility. These
results are strengthened when we take account of the heterogeneity among households that
undoubtedly exists.
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